Maria Sharapova will walk into the match
with the fewest games lost in the tournament in making it to the Australian
Open semi-final since the 128 player draw began, an open era record. Li Na will
walk back to the courts where she clawed her way back from the jaws of defeat in 2011, by saving a match point and defeating then World no.1 Caroline Wozniacki, to
make it to her first ever grand slam final.
The two players have been hot since the
start of the season, Li going 13-1 since the start and the only loss coming at
the hands of Agnieszka Radwanska, while Sharapova still undefeated in her 2013
campaign.
This is the pair's 13th meeting, with
Sharapova leading 8-4, winning the last 3 meetings in 2012. Sharapova routed Li
in the semi-finals of Beijing last year, baggling Li in the 2nd set.
Both players have yet to drop a set so
far in the tournament. Let us have a look at what do the numbers tell us about
the performance of the players.
The stats below are the average stats of the players for the 5 matches played so far in the tournament.
| Description | Sharapova | Li |
| Aces | 4 | 3 |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 |
| 1st Serve %age | 60% | 66% |
| 1st serve points won | 79% | 65% |
| 2nd serve points won | 55% | 50% |
| Net points won | 62% | 69% |
| Break points won | 57% | 75% |
| 1st serve return won | 54% | 47% |
| 2nd serve return won | 71% | 65% |
| Winners | 20 | 21 |
| Unforced Errors | 15 | 29 |
The match will come down to 3 things as
always
Serve: Service holds have not been a
problem for Sharapova so far in this tournament, as she has been broken only
twice in her previous 5 matches. Li, on the other hand has been broken for 11
times in her previous 5 matches. Add the fact that Sharapova has won 14% more
points compared to Li, behind her first serve and 5% more behind her 2nd serve.
Serve, a liability for Sharapova or Li?
Return: Sharapova has been hot on
returns, breaking her opponents ruthlessly throughout her 5 matches. Li, has
not been bad on service returns, however Sharapova has been better. Li has won 65% points behind her first serve while Sharapova has won 54% points while returning the first serves of her opponents. The major concern for Li will be her 2nd serve, where has won only 50% points and Sharapova has been punishing the players on their 2nd serves. Li will have to up her first serve %age and points won behind her first serve.
Winners-Unforced Errors Differential: The player with cleaner stats will have
more chance of making it to the final of the first grand slam of the year. Both
players hit the ball as hard as they can, and keeping the unforced errors low will
definitely help each player. A perfect balance between aggression and defense
will be needed. Sharapova has so been been able to keep her stats clean with a +5 winners-unforced errors differential, while Li has a -8 winners-unforced errors differential.
Sharapova has Li's previous coach Thomas
Hogstedt in her corner and an insight into Li's game will definitely help
Sharapova. Li on the other hand has Carlos Rodriguez, Justine Henin's former
coach, on her camp. It will be interesting to see how to the players go out
there on the court.
Sharapova has a great chance of winning
this match, however, if Li can dictate and make Sharapova run and come to the
net, Li will have a chance in this match.
It will also come down to what type of Li
we see today, an error spraying machine or a composed and winner producing
player. The player making the first strike will definitely have an edge in the
match.
My mind tells me to go with Sharapova,
but I know that I will be rooting for Li Na.
Pick : Sharapova in 3 sets.
Who are you going for?
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